The U.S. Dollar Index ® traded higher during early trading on November 1st to pierce through the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands driven by bullish activity, reflecting the increased demand for the U.S. Dollar. However, this early momentum swiftly reversed after the market failed to reach October's yearly high. The reversal coincided with the ADP Employment Change report, which revealed the addition of 113,000 new private sector jobs. This figure was considerably short of expectations, despite being an improvement on the prior month's figures of 89,000 new jobs. ISM Manufacturing PMI data surprised the markets with a disappointing result as figures declined from 49 to 46.7 in October as manufacturing continued to contract. The Fed released the latest interest rate decision also on November 1st, at the conclusion of their meeting and left rates unchanged for a second straight meeting. Even after the subsequent drop during the U.S. session the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the first day of trading at 106.72 with a 0.17% gain. The bearish momentum gathered pace through the remainder of the week, with Friday posting the largest loss at 1.12% after Nonfarm Payrolls announced 150,000 new jobs created which fell significantly below the prior month of 297,000 and expectations of 180,000. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week at 104.86 with a loss of 1.43% and broke the daily support level which held throughout October.

The demand for the U.S Dollar returned on Monday November 6th and the U.S. Dollar bulls drove the U.S. Dollar Index ® steadily higher throughout the week as demand continued to increase. The strongest performance was on November 9th after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech indicated that more work was likely as they remain steadfast to achieve their goal of bringing inflation down to 2% over time. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed with a gain of 0.33% on the day. The bullish move continued into Friday's trading until the market reached the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands and pulled back, this weakness aided by the release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data falling short of expectations. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week at 105.73 with a gain of 0.77%.

On November 14th, Core Inflation data, excluding food and energy, eased more than expected to 4.0% for the 12-month period ending October, down from 4.1% the prior month, and the lowest rate in over 2-years. The Consumer Price Index data released also surprised the markets as the pace of annual inflation (CPI for all items) declined greater-than-expected to 3.2% from the previous 3.7% for the same 12-month period. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed at 103.91 with a loss of 1.55%, just breaching a support level at 104.25 -103.98 and the lower Bollinger Band, the weakest one-day performance of the month. The U.S. Dollar Index ® subsequently traded sideways for the remainder of the week even though the bulls came back on November 15th after Retail Sales data announced better than expected figures to post a daily gain of 0.21%. With little direction the following day and on Friday the market closed down 0.44% as the demand for the U.S. Dollar weakened. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week at 103.80 with a loss of 1.74%.

On Monday November 20th the U.S. Dollar Index ® continued to show weakness and hugged the lower Bollinger Band. Demand was found on November 21st within a 4-hour level 103.17 - 102.85 nested within the daily pivot and the market rallied. FOMC minutes released highlighted the steadfast approach to the pursuit of curbing inflation and that the restrictive monetary policy would continue. The U.S. Dollar Index ® traded higher for three consecutive days until Friday November 24th when the demand for the U.S. Dollar declined. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data announced a drop to 49.4, failing to meet expectations and falling below the prior month's release. However, the S&P Global Services PMI data continued to defy the recent declining trend to exceed the prior month's release and expectations. Nonetheless the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day at 103.30 with a loss of 0.31% to end the week with a 0.39% loss.

The bearish momentum continued into the following week and the U.S. Dollar Index ® traded lower for two consecutive days. The bulls returned on November 29th following the announcement of GDP Q3 preliminary figures, which indicated an annualized growth rate of 5.2% for the U.S. economy, a leap from 4.9% announced at the prior month's release and exceeding expectations. The bullish momentum continued into the final trading day of the month and the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed with a gain of 0.75%, the strongest one-day performance of the month.

The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the month at 103.43 with a loss of 2.91%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ® was in a downtrend on the daily timeframe using the daily SMA (20, 30 and 50) and daily EMA (20, 30 and 50). The U.S. Dollar Index ® was in a downtrend on the weekly timeframe based on the weekly SMA (10, 20 and 30) and weekly EMA (10, 20 and 30).

Source: ICE Connect

Source: ICE Connect

Contact us to trade

Restrictions on Distribution

The distribution of this document and the offering of any products, investments or strategies mentioned in it may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. None of ICE Futures Singapore, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. nor any of their affiliates (collectively, “ICE”) represent that this document may be lawfully distributed, or that any product, investment or strategy described in it may be lawfully offered in compliance with any applicable laws or requirements in any such jurisdiction.

Disclosure Section

This document does not provide individually tailored financial or investment advice, and no part of this document should be construed as doing so. This document has been prepared without regard to the individual financial or other circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Investors and users should independently evaluate particular products, investments, and strategies and are encouraged to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular product, investment or strategy will depend on a user or investor's individual circumstances and objectives. The products, investments or strategies discussed in this document may not be suitable for all users and investors, and certain users or investors may not be eligible to purchase or participate in some or all of them.

ICE Futures Singapore does not provide financial, investment, legal or tax advice and is not in the business of doing so. Each user or investor should always consult a financial, investment, legal or tax advisor for information concerning its individual situation and to learn about any potential financial, investment, legal, tax or other implications that may result from any product, investment or strategy described in this document.

In particular, any opinion contained in this document (including an indication of any “sell”, “neutral” or “buy” condition) is generic and not a recommendation to take (or omit to take) any action in relation to any product, investment or strategy.

Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading “Key information Documents (KIDS)”.

© 2023 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. The information and materials contained in this document - including text, graphics, links or other items - are provided for general information only on an "as is" and "as available" basis. Although this document is issued in good faith, no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied, is or will be made in respect of the information contained herein. ICE excludes all liability arising from or in relation to the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, fitness or timeliness of the information provided and assumes no duty whatsoever. The information in this document is liable to change, and ICE undertakes no duty to update such information. You should not rely on any information contained in this document without first checking that it is correct and up to date. No information set out or referred to in this document shall form the basis of any contract. The content of this document is proprietary to ICE in every respect and is protected by copyright. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of ICE. All third-party trademarks are owned by their respective owners and are used with permission.

Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE, and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located at www.intercontinentalexchange.com/terms-of-use